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  Assessing Year 2000 Exposures<br>by Ed Praytor, CDP CCP

The Trick To Assessing Year 2000 Exposures by Ed Praytor, CDP CCP


First published in National Underwriter Magazine, June 9, 1997
Copyright © 1997, Systems Management Resources, Inc., All rights reserved.

Synopsis

This article describes a technique called the "Technology Artifact Review" which can be used to determine whether a Year 2000 compliance project or set of projects will complete as required.

Introduction

Professional liability, officers liability, and business interruption insurance underwriting requires careful underwriting practices, if satisfactory returns are to be obtained by the insurer. In ever increasing numbers, policy holders provide or rely on information technology in the routine conduct of their business. In two earlier articles published National Underwriter, Michael Gantt (November 11, 1996) and Vito Peraino (February 17, 1997) did an excellent job of defining the problem. To summarize the effect of the "Millennium Bug" in terms of risk: The litigation fallout is estimated to be as high as $1 trillion in the United States alone. This risk is shared by technology intensive companies conducting their own business (such as insurance companies and service providers), software and consulting organizations who fail to properly protect their clients, and hardware vendors who already have sold products that will fail. I might add that the U.S. is probably the best positioned, so the litigation risk is even higher for Western Europe, the Far East or Australia. The underwriting assessment of this risk is at best haphazard and superficial for most insurers. At worst it is absent.

This paper presents a cost effective method of assessing information technology (IT) risk, based on evaluation techniques that have been used in the field since 1987. These were originally developed to provide a benchmark for the improvement of internal IT organizations, many of them from within the Property and Casualty insurance industry. It assesses technology risk from all sources, including the Millennium Bug. While no assurance of absolute reliability is possible, these methods have proven to be flexible and effective tools in a wide range of industries and types of organizations. Together they are called the Technology Artifact Review (TAR).

The Technology Artifact Review- Defined

The TAR is a highly structured, time compressed, assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of an IT intensive organization as an indication of the future performance of the organization in support of defined objectives. Employing both off-site elements and on-site inspections, the product of such a review is an objective assessment of the future risk of IT related failure of Key Business Functions (KBFs). The KBFs of the organization may be either the provision of IT related services or IT intensive business products (such as claims administration, medical care, or financial services). Since severe failure of an IT project, such as Year 2000, always prevents accomplishment of the business functions, professional liability exposures and business interruption risks are high. To the extent that Directors and Officers of the affected organization are held to be liable for such failures, they are likewise exposed.

Methodology

Since the purpose of a TAR is to quickly and economically determine the technological risk environment of the client, without unduly burdening them, the pre assessment activity is emphasized. Although the Pre-Assessment Package may appear to be large, it is important to note that the documents requested are usually already available in well run IT environments. If the prospective client must spend an undue amount of time to assemble them (more than 3 days), it is legitimate to question whether this is an assumable risk.

With the information from the pre-assessment activity in-hand, an experienced IT professional should be able to make a preliminary assessment of the IT environment that likely exists, and identify areas for on-site investigation. At that time the targeted interviews are requested and scheduled. It is very important that the reviewer establish control over the client with respect to what he/she will have access to when on-site.

The on-site portion of the assessment is essential because IT organizations are aware of the importance and appearance of key documents. At worst, these can be falsified. The norm is that sound methodologies exist on paper, but not in practice. The IT organization that actually follows the guidelines that it publishesis the exception to the rule. Therefore on-site inspection and interviews, under the control of the reviewer represent the only viable safeguard against intentional or unintentional misrepresentation by the prospective client. Depending on the size of the organization and the number of verification points identified by the reviewer, the on site phase can be accomplished in 1 to 2 business days.

The final phase is the analysis of the information obtained and preparation of the briefing documents for the underwriter. While the primary purpose of these analyses is to enable the underwriter to make an informed decision about the case, there is an important secondary purpose for those cases actually written. The secondary purpose is to inform the new insured as to steps that need to be taken to reduce the risk of IT failures in mission critical applications.

Components of the IT Risk Assessment

Built on the time honored principle of trust with verification, the TAR has three components:

  1. The pre-assessment package- forms and requests for information to be provided to the Chief Operating Officer of an insured or prospective insured.
  2. The on-site component- interviews and inspections of documents that were produced as a consequence of past information technology activity.
  3. The underwriter's briefing package- an objective assessment of the projected risk of future IT activity of the insured or prospective insured.

Each component of the assessment can be configured to the business of the prospective insured and to your own company's needs. They must contain certain elements. For instance, the pre-assessment package must elicit from the client enough details to enable the reviewer to identify potential trouble spots, and to identify the most likely places to look to disprove or verify the problematic area. The on-site component must be comprehensive enough to enable verification of IT capabilities based on historical performance and structured interviews of key people in the organization, some of them outside the IT department. The underwriter's briefing package must concisely, in non-technical language, describe not only the strengths and weaknesses found, but also differentiate between the important and the cosmetic.

The Pre-Assessment Package as completed by the client contains ten information items. A Client Organization Chart, down to the level of department heads and in the case of the IT organization, down to the team leader level, enables the reviewer to identify potential interviewees and correlate the other documents in the package. The Hardware/Systems Software and the Applications Software Summaries must include each major component, the computer language used, how supported, number of lines of computer instructions it contains and when each component was placed into service. The IT Strategic Plan and Year 2000 Compliance Summaries are important planning documents that enable an initial assessment of the relative sophistication of the client with respect to technology management and give early indications of areas requiring closer attention. The IT Systems Development Methodology and IT Quality Methodology Summaries are paper indicators of the reliability of the development processes, but the reviewer should note that the majority of paper methodologies are not followed in actual practice and that relatively new ones (in use less than 2 years) have not yet had the chance to stabilize. The IT Project History, IT Maintenance History, and IT Voluntary Staff Turnover History should contain enough quantitative and descriptive information to enable the reviewer to get a "feel" for the work load and staff issues within the IT organization. Any areas found to be factually wanting or absent by the reviewer are follow-up items in the on-site stage of the review.

The On-Site Component is absolutely essential to the accuracy of a TAR. The basic principle, which in 25 years of commercial data processing I have yet to see fail, is that all well run (meaning low risk) IT environments spin off objectively verifiable artifacts as a byproduct of their development and support activities. These artifacts are reliable because they are, with the exception of some government contracts, not the end product and therefore tend not to be "doctored". Even status reports, which are often exercises in creative writing, eventually become reliable as deadlines near. Interviews, direct observations, and document reviews are the main tools of this component. Primary Document Reviews are the inspections of the technology plans, methods documents and historical data which were provided by the client, in summary form, during the previous step. It is unreasonable to request the detail documents to be provided in the pre- assessment stage, due to their size and complexity. Therefore an on-site inspection is required. Artifact Inspections generally include selected project planning, reporting and tracking documents, status reports, specifications, test results, and systems support request paper files. Targeted Interviews, both within and outside the IT organization, are used to verify historical performance and determine if systems users are able to effectively work with systems development personnel. It is reasonable to assume that interviewees may be coached prior to the interview, but an experienced reviewer can generally detect when this has occurred and determine the facts.

The Underwriter's Briefing should contain at least 4 sections and, for accepted risks, be amended to include a 5th section. The Organizational Assessment is a narrative of those characteristics that pertain to the reliable use of technology. Typically these characteristics are evenly distributed between executive management, departmental management, and the IT department itself. The Methodology Assessment is an analysis of the completeness and maturity of the methods used to develop and support technology. Mature methods, consistently used, mean low risk of a Year 2000 project failure. The Performance Assessment is predicated on the premise that the past is a good predictor of the future. This component of the briefing package summarizes historical facts from previous IT projects that may be predictive of future performance. The Risk Analysis is a synthesis of the previous three sections into a strengths/weaknesses snapshot of the client. It translates the entire review into quantitative and qualitative measures of risk. The 5th component should be added only after the risk is accepted. The Remediation Recommendations are specific changes to the IT project environment that if made will significantly reduce Year 2000 and other IT related risk.

Due to space limitations, details on the contents of the three components have been omitted. As a service to National Underwriter readers, more extensive information on the components are available from Systems Managment Resources, Inc.. Send E-Mail to SMR, Inc.

Staff Requirements

The manpower requirements to support a review are small, in that a single reviewer can and should handle the entire case. A prospective client's time investment is from 2 to 5 man-days to assemble documents and participate in interviews. The reviewer will require 3.5 to 5.0 man days to take a case through the entire process, assuming that the framework for such reviews is already developed.

However, only a experienced manager with a broad IT background is capable of performing such a review. A combination of people skills and technical skills is essential to organize and execute these assessments in a way that is non-threatening to the prospective client.

Fortunately, many insurance companies have such people already in their employ. Our recommendation is that mid to upper level IT managers be utilized to perform these reviews, on a part time basis. Many IT managers possess these skills and also desire the opportunity to contribute more directly to the profitability of their company. It is also very career broadening to perform such reviews; and because of this, such assignments may prove to be highly sought after within the IT management staff. It is important that their other responsibilities be adjusted to allow their participation.

Should IT management personnel not be available to perform these studies, it is possible to "farm out" the studies to a third party. Should this route be taken, it is important to verify the credentials of the specific reviewers assigned. This is not a job for junior level people, and not many firms have a track record in these assessments. The point is that, if the 3rd party route is taken, expect to spend some time identifying the right resource to use.

Pitfalls of the Information Technology Risk Assessment

First you will insure fewer risks. Prospective insureds are often reluctant to expose their internal operations to outside scrutiny, particularly those with problematic situations. Expect to lose some applicants.

Second you will be using a scarce resource within your own company, e.g. the experienced business person with an IT background and good client skills. Expect some adjustment discomfort as this resource is made available.

Third these reviews are at their core, subjective in nature. While very grounded in verifiable data, it is often a "judgment call" as to the prognosis of a given IT situation. No doubt some bad risks will be accepted, if enough cases are evaluated. There is also a possibility of multiple losses due to the use of a common IT services provider for a solution to a common problem, such as year 2000 compliance.

Conclusion

This paper has presented a structured method for conducting a Technology Artifact Review, which is both effective and economical. While it is important to follow a pre-defined process and use appropriately experienced reviewers, the demands placed on an insurer to implement a TAR program are manageable.

Though certain drawbacks exist with TAR's, the end result should be that the book of business written by the insurer will be profitable, and the risk of multiple catastrophic loss greatly mitigated. Reflecting the shift to information based products and services, these types of reviews will become as essential and commonplace as casualty risk assessments and risk management programs are today.

About the Author

Ed's Mug Shot

Ed Praytor, CDP CCP began his insurance information technology career in 1973, as a systems engineer for Electronic Data Systems Corporation. Leaving EDS in 1979, he subsequently led the software support and professional services organizations for Insurance Systems of America (ISA) and Advanced Technology Systems (ADTEC). In 1985 he started Systems Management Resources, Inc.(SMR), a highly specialized management consulting group based in Atlanta.

Since 1985, SMR has concentrated on the diagnosis and correction of the organizational and methodology related causes of IT quality and performance problems. In 1987, SMR introduced the information technology SnapshotTM, the organizational assessment and improvement methodology on which the Technology Artifact Review described in this paper is based. Since 1987 he and his associates have performed numerous SnapshotTM reviews, both inside and outside the insurance industry.

Certified by the Institute for Certification of Computer Professionals and the American Arbitration Association, he also arbitrates IT disputes. He has published several feature articles, authored a monthly column on IT performance issues and is currently finishing a book on this topic which will be published in 1998.

He can be reached at (770) 955-7211.

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